Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Monday, August 4, 2008
News Hour: SPDC is watching NLD, 88 and other political activists
Rangoon
SPDC plainclothes police are watching the political activists’ residences who have been jailed. They have started day and night watching before arrival of Human Rights Council investigator for Burma, Tomas Ojea Quintana. In South Okkalaypa and other townships, secret police units are working along with local SPDC before Mr Quintana arrival.
Many plainclothes special branch policemen have been watching from the opposite of NLD HQs since last week. They have photographed rare visitors, embassies staffs and other political activists since then.
During day time, local SPDC and Swan Arr-Shin thugs have passed and showed their presents near the activists houses and their regular meeting points. One point, many plainclothes policemen also showed up at the monasteries in Bahan Township and asking for people who are overnight visitors.
Sources said regime was closely watching preparation of issues of political prisoners and other human rights violations and condition of political prisoners’ health situations. Many political prisoners are slowing dying in the jail without medical treatment or proper medical treatment. UN rights investigator might raise the human rights condition and other inhumanity issues with regime, sources stressed.
SPDC plainclothes police are watching the political activists’ residences who have been jailed. They have started day and night watching before arrival of Human Rights Council investigator for Burma, Tomas Ojea Quintana. In South Okkalaypa and other townships, secret police units are working along with local SPDC before Mr Quintana arrival.
Many plainclothes special branch policemen have been watching from the opposite of NLD HQs since last week. They have photographed rare visitors, embassies staffs and other political activists since then.
During day time, local SPDC and Swan Arr-Shin thugs have passed and showed their presents near the activists houses and their regular meeting points. One point, many plainclothes policemen also showed up at the monasteries in Bahan Township and asking for people who are overnight visitors.
Sources said regime was closely watching preparation of issues of political prisoners and other human rights violations and condition of political prisoners’ health situations. Many political prisoners are slowing dying in the jail without medical treatment or proper medical treatment. UN rights investigator might raise the human rights condition and other inhumanity issues with regime, sources stressed.
Saturday, August 2, 2008
The First Casualty: Remembrance of Brave Reporter U Nay Min (BBC Stringer)
BDD
Regime secret police forces and military intelligence stormed two bedroom apartments in Min Ma Naing public apartment complex in the middle of the day in late 1988. A Man in forties was arrested from his hideout and while he was dragged out to the military truck. His head was cut and face was swelling. This is what I saw him last time while I was supposed to meet him his apartment for interviewing.
He was phoned by BBC world service reporter Christopher Gunness while he was arrested later we realized. “Without U Nay Min, I couldn’t get any news from Burma” Christopher Gunness stressed in Chiang Mai after fifteen years of 1988. We talked about how we involved in the 1988 and how we communicated each other through U Nay Min.
After BSPP has changed its face as SLORC in 1988, they arrested BBC stringer U Nay Min before the on lookers at his hideout at Min Ma Naing public apartment complex. He was later sentenced for long serving and his name was fainted out. Was a quiet lawyer and able to speak English, he met BBC reporter in Rangoon turned a reporter.
He decided to send news for BBC reporter without looking for any financial benefit but he wanted to send the what did really happen in Burma through BBC to the world.
I still hear U Nay Min’s fearless words “I might not be a real reporter but this is only chance to communicate the world, no matter we might get killed or arrested, when we look at young students, monks, women who sacrificed for hope of freedom and democracy.”
Regime accused and launching propaganda against pro democracy activists and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi was not new. Since 1988, hostility and full of mendacious propagandas to marginalize the political struggle for the people in the regime mouth piece New Lights of Myanmar. Yet, regime feared not only Daw Aung San Suu Kyi but media as a permanent enemy.
Saturday, July 26, 2008
A Roadmap for Democracy in Burma
July 25, 2008
by Jared Genser
In an appearance at the annual Asean summit, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice described the Burmese junta’s plan for the gradual restoration of democracy to Burma as a “mockery which is going nowhere.” While this condemnation may have grated on some of the participants as not sufficiently diplomatic, it is the cold, hard, indisputable truth. Lest anyone forget, it has been 18 long years since Burma’s 1990 elections when the National League for Democracy and its allies won 82% of the parliamentary seats, and were never allowed to take office.
The most powerful symbol of the Burmese people’s resilience has been the revolving-door house arrest of the world’s only imprisoned Nobel Peace Prize laureate, NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi. Flouting its own law, the Burmese junta recently extended her most recent stint in her dilapidated home to a sixth straight year. Over the course of some 12 years of detention over the last 18, the United Nations Working Group on Arbitrary Detention has ruled four times that her detention is illegal, and is in clear violation of international law. A fifth petition before this body is pending. And yet the junta continues to detain her, and ignore the popular will of its own people.
While the U.N. Secretary-General, the Burmese regime, and allies of the junta have urged that the question of humanitarian aid in the wake of Cyclone Nargis not be “politicized,” the regime itself has taken every advantage of the cyclone to make permanent its grip on power to the exclusion of helping its own people. As is often the case, distraction and delay in discussing the fundamental issues in Burma only serve the interests of the regime.
The junta itself insists that it is on a seven-step roadmap to democracy. In the days following the cyclone -- which left more than 140,000 dead or missing and millions without the most basic levels of subsistence -- the regime focused on conducting its sham constitutional referendum, designed to cement its hold on power and then claimed victory by implausible margins.
The junta has also brazenly used the cyclone to its further advantage. The United Nations recently reported that aid groups have lost some 20% of the money they have brought in to Burma because of arbitrary foreign exchange rules imposed by the junta. Not only does the junta retain these funds as its own “tax” on relief operations, but this also reduces the aid provided to those most in need.
So what can really be done with such a seemingly intractable conflict?
During last fall’s Saffron Revolution, the U.N. Security Council unanimously agreed on a statement outlining a practical roadmap for a restoration of democracy to Burma. While that roadmap had been shelved after the cyclone, it is time for it to be dusted off and put into practice. In particular, the statement made clear that the solution to the problems of Burma required the following key features: (1) personal engagement by the UN Secretary-General; (2) early release of all political prisoners; (3) the Burmese junta entering into an inclusive process of national reconciliation with Aung San Suu Kyi and ethnic groups; (4) the need for commitments to be followed by action; and (5) ongoing engagement by the international community.
Currently, U.N. Special Envoy Ibrahim Gambari is scheduled to return to Burma in August to pave the way for a return visit of Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon later this year. The time has come for the United Nations to measure success by outcomes alone, not merely by the engagement in process. Were success to be measured by engagement alone, it would have already been achieved. Special envoys and rapporteurs have made literally dozens of trip to Burma over the years, with minimal effect.
Unless tangible and specific outcomes are actually achieved from this visit -- including the release of Aung San Suu Kyi and other political prisoners, which is a prerequisite for any meaningful dialogue -- then it is time for the Security Council to take further action. Specifically, it should escalate the pressure on the junta by adopting a binding resolution to transform its recommendations from its presidential statement into demands. Pressure has been increasing from numerous Asean countries, which now view Burma as holding back the development of the bloc. And pressure has been sustained by the United States, United Kingdom and France. But all members of the Security Council -- including China, Russia, and South Africa, which had opposed prior action on Burma -- must be reminded of their subsequent agreement with this roadmap.
There have never been any easy answers to the problems in Burma. And that continues to be the case. In the meantime, the Burmese people draw strength from the grace, dignity, and spirit of Aung San Suu Kyi and the perseverance of their fellow citizens. And they hope and pray that we will use, as she has said, our freedom to promote theirs.
Mr. Genser is President of Freedom Now, represents Aung San Suu Kyi, and is a Young Global Leader of the World Economic Forum.
Source: Far Eastern Economic Review
by Jared Genser
In an appearance at the annual Asean summit, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice described the Burmese junta’s plan for the gradual restoration of democracy to Burma as a “mockery which is going nowhere.” While this condemnation may have grated on some of the participants as not sufficiently diplomatic, it is the cold, hard, indisputable truth. Lest anyone forget, it has been 18 long years since Burma’s 1990 elections when the National League for Democracy and its allies won 82% of the parliamentary seats, and were never allowed to take office.
The most powerful symbol of the Burmese people’s resilience has been the revolving-door house arrest of the world’s only imprisoned Nobel Peace Prize laureate, NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi. Flouting its own law, the Burmese junta recently extended her most recent stint in her dilapidated home to a sixth straight year. Over the course of some 12 years of detention over the last 18, the United Nations Working Group on Arbitrary Detention has ruled four times that her detention is illegal, and is in clear violation of international law. A fifth petition before this body is pending. And yet the junta continues to detain her, and ignore the popular will of its own people.
While the U.N. Secretary-General, the Burmese regime, and allies of the junta have urged that the question of humanitarian aid in the wake of Cyclone Nargis not be “politicized,” the regime itself has taken every advantage of the cyclone to make permanent its grip on power to the exclusion of helping its own people. As is often the case, distraction and delay in discussing the fundamental issues in Burma only serve the interests of the regime.
The junta itself insists that it is on a seven-step roadmap to democracy. In the days following the cyclone -- which left more than 140,000 dead or missing and millions without the most basic levels of subsistence -- the regime focused on conducting its sham constitutional referendum, designed to cement its hold on power and then claimed victory by implausible margins.
The junta has also brazenly used the cyclone to its further advantage. The United Nations recently reported that aid groups have lost some 20% of the money they have brought in to Burma because of arbitrary foreign exchange rules imposed by the junta. Not only does the junta retain these funds as its own “tax” on relief operations, but this also reduces the aid provided to those most in need.
So what can really be done with such a seemingly intractable conflict?
During last fall’s Saffron Revolution, the U.N. Security Council unanimously agreed on a statement outlining a practical roadmap for a restoration of democracy to Burma. While that roadmap had been shelved after the cyclone, it is time for it to be dusted off and put into practice. In particular, the statement made clear that the solution to the problems of Burma required the following key features: (1) personal engagement by the UN Secretary-General; (2) early release of all political prisoners; (3) the Burmese junta entering into an inclusive process of national reconciliation with Aung San Suu Kyi and ethnic groups; (4) the need for commitments to be followed by action; and (5) ongoing engagement by the international community.
Currently, U.N. Special Envoy Ibrahim Gambari is scheduled to return to Burma in August to pave the way for a return visit of Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon later this year. The time has come for the United Nations to measure success by outcomes alone, not merely by the engagement in process. Were success to be measured by engagement alone, it would have already been achieved. Special envoys and rapporteurs have made literally dozens of trip to Burma over the years, with minimal effect.
Unless tangible and specific outcomes are actually achieved from this visit -- including the release of Aung San Suu Kyi and other political prisoners, which is a prerequisite for any meaningful dialogue -- then it is time for the Security Council to take further action. Specifically, it should escalate the pressure on the junta by adopting a binding resolution to transform its recommendations from its presidential statement into demands. Pressure has been increasing from numerous Asean countries, which now view Burma as holding back the development of the bloc. And pressure has been sustained by the United States, United Kingdom and France. But all members of the Security Council -- including China, Russia, and South Africa, which had opposed prior action on Burma -- must be reminded of their subsequent agreement with this roadmap.
There have never been any easy answers to the problems in Burma. And that continues to be the case. In the meantime, the Burmese people draw strength from the grace, dignity, and spirit of Aung San Suu Kyi and the perseverance of their fellow citizens. And they hope and pray that we will use, as she has said, our freedom to promote theirs.
Mr. Genser is President of Freedom Now, represents Aung San Suu Kyi, and is a Young Global Leader of the World Economic Forum.
Source: Far Eastern Economic Review
Friday, July 25, 2008
Intelligence: General Thura Shwe Mann is not tough enough?
BDD
Sources close with General Shwe Mann said that their boss would get a pink slip (lay off) from the regime top generals. Because of he has taken initiative to improve the image of SPDC after post Nargis cyclone.
However, hardliners within hard-line group opposed his initiative from day one. He (Shwe Mann) tired to be quiet at the first but things may not have done smoothly without getting support and coordinating from ASEAN and UN.
He has wider perspective and far sided person. Politically,he is smarter than others, sources claimed. He proposed to contain US and Western countries intervention should be traded with the ASEAN and UN participation. However, many key players refused to accept at the beginning.
He reportedly allowed the local donors to provide aids for victims as a bridge before UN and ASEAN reaching agreement. However, a different group requested Sen-Gen Than Shwe to take more harder line to refuse the international aid that might change the Burma’s political landscape.
Sources said that he has no benefits from relief effort but his intention is to prevent US and other Western intervention. His son businesses in Delta were safe and because his sons' businesses are quite a bit far away from hard-hit area.
Now he is facing criticism of not being tough enough for SPDC leading role, perhaps he should not be fit in the C-in-C position after senior general leaving from the post. Source close to SPDC second man general Maung Aye, said that this is not a power struggle but they need a leader who is decisive and strong minded to defend the Burma army from the foreign interference.
However, there have no sign of seniors level generals have taken own initiative to run the country without instruction of senior general. After they witnessed general Khin Nyunt faced severe punishment and none of the generals in the SPDC wanted to follow their former colleague.
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Top Story: UN Ponders Intervention
dpa
The Security Council will decide whether it will hold an emergency session to discuss an escalating border spat between Thailand and Cambodia over an ancient Hindu temple.
On Monday Cambodian Foreign Minister Hor Namhong, claiming he feared an "imminent state of war," appealed to the 15-member UN Security Council to intervene in the Thai-Cambodian dispute over conflicting claims to territory adjacent to the Preah Vihear temple, perched on a cliff that partly defines the two neighbouring countries' common border.
Thailand has informed the UN of its preference to resolve the dispute through bilateral talks, Thailand's Ambassador to the UN Don Pramudwinai confirmed in an interview with the state-run Thai News Agency (TNA).
The UN will decide on whether to hold an emergency session over the border row on Thursday, said Don. "The council will call a meeting tomorrow (Thursday) and we will see to it whether or not the council will hold an emergency session upon Cambodia's request," he told the TNA.
Cambodian Defence Minister Teah Banh and Thai Supreme Commander General Boonsrang Niempradit met at the Thai border town of Aranyaprathet on Monday in an attempt to defuse the temple dispute bilaterally but failed to find a solution to the legal obstacles involved.
The problem dates back to a map drawn up in 1908 by French cartographers to define the Thai-Cambodian border when Cambodia was still a French colony. Although the French insisted the border should be defined according to the watershed - where the rain water falls in opposite directions - along the Dongrak mountain range, in their map the ancient Preah Vihear, perched on the tip of a 525 metre high cliff that is a steep fall on the Cambodian side and a gradual slope on the Thai one, oddly ended up on the Cambodian side of the watershed.
Thailand's failure to officially object to the questionable map-making led to their losing the temple in 1962 when a dispute over the temple's ownership was settled in the Hague at the International Court of Justice.
Source: Bangkok Post
The Security Council will decide whether it will hold an emergency session to discuss an escalating border spat between Thailand and Cambodia over an ancient Hindu temple.
On Monday Cambodian Foreign Minister Hor Namhong, claiming he feared an "imminent state of war," appealed to the 15-member UN Security Council to intervene in the Thai-Cambodian dispute over conflicting claims to territory adjacent to the Preah Vihear temple, perched on a cliff that partly defines the two neighbouring countries' common border.
Thailand has informed the UN of its preference to resolve the dispute through bilateral talks, Thailand's Ambassador to the UN Don Pramudwinai confirmed in an interview with the state-run Thai News Agency (TNA).
The UN will decide on whether to hold an emergency session over the border row on Thursday, said Don. "The council will call a meeting tomorrow (Thursday) and we will see to it whether or not the council will hold an emergency session upon Cambodia's request," he told the TNA.
Cambodian Defence Minister Teah Banh and Thai Supreme Commander General Boonsrang Niempradit met at the Thai border town of Aranyaprathet on Monday in an attempt to defuse the temple dispute bilaterally but failed to find a solution to the legal obstacles involved.
The problem dates back to a map drawn up in 1908 by French cartographers to define the Thai-Cambodian border when Cambodia was still a French colony. Although the French insisted the border should be defined according to the watershed - where the rain water falls in opposite directions - along the Dongrak mountain range, in their map the ancient Preah Vihear, perched on the tip of a 525 metre high cliff that is a steep fall on the Cambodian side and a gradual slope on the Thai one, oddly ended up on the Cambodian side of the watershed.
Thailand's failure to officially object to the questionable map-making led to their losing the temple in 1962 when a dispute over the temple's ownership was settled in the Hague at the International Court of Justice.
Source: Bangkok Post
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Bangkok Post: Another Burma promise
Singapore - Burma ratified the charter of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Monday and vowed to uphold its democratic ideals, but dashed hopes of releasing opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi within the next six months.
The country, vilified for its dictatorial government and human rights abuses, became the seventh of the 10-member regional grouping to ratify the document, which was signed by the leaders in November last year.
"Myanmar's ratification of the charter demonstrates our strong commitment to embrace the common values and aspirations of the peoples of Asean," Foreign Minister Nyan Win said, using the military dictators' new name for Burma.
"It is my honest hope that with the growing momentum of ratification, our common goal and commitment to complete ratification of the charter by all member states will be realized at the time of our leaders' summit in Bangkok" in December, he added.
While foreign ministers attending the 41st Asean Ministers Meeting watched, Nyan Win handed over the document to Asean Secretary General Surin Pitsuwan, to the applause of observers.
Burma was also among the Asean countries which unanimously set up a high-level panel on an Asean human rights body, and endorse its terms of reference.
"We urged Myanmar to take bolder steps towards a peaceful transition to democracy in the near future," and work towards the holding of free and fair general elections in 2010," said the minister's communique at the end of the meeting.
"We reiterated our calls for the release of all political detainees, including Suu Kyi, to pave the way for meaningful dialogue involving all parties concerned."
In a separate statement, Singapore Minister for Foreign Af`fairs George Yeo said Ngan Win had clarified that Suu Kyi would not be released in the next six months, but six months from May 2009, the expiry date of the existing one-year detention order.
Yeo, who is also Asean chairman, and other foreign ministers "misunderstood the point made by the Burmese foreign minister on the limit of the detention period," a statement said.
The "clarification" was made at the ministers' meeting Monday afternoon.
Suu Kyi has spent 13 years in detention since 1989. Her house arrest was recently extended.
Surin said he was sure the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia would soon ratify the charter and that he expected the ratification process to be completed by December.
"The charter will help us building an Asean community we can all be proud of," he said.
The document, which will turn the 41-year-old regional grouping into a legal entity, was initially opposed by the ruling junta because of its inclusion of human rights.
Several Philippine senators said they would oppose the ratification of the charter until the military junta that has ruled Burma since 1962 institutes democratic reforms.
In opening the meeting, Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said Asean had decided to press on with the charter's implementation without waiting for all 10 members to ratify it.
"The internal processes of member countries are different and some will be more difficult than others, Lee said.
The Burmese ratification occurred a day after Asean ministers expressed their "deep disappointment" over the continued detention of Suu Kyi and undetermined numbers of political prisoners.
Asean comprises Brunei, Burma, Cambodia, Laos, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
Source: Bangkok Post
The country, vilified for its dictatorial government and human rights abuses, became the seventh of the 10-member regional grouping to ratify the document, which was signed by the leaders in November last year.
"Myanmar's ratification of the charter demonstrates our strong commitment to embrace the common values and aspirations of the peoples of Asean," Foreign Minister Nyan Win said, using the military dictators' new name for Burma.
"It is my honest hope that with the growing momentum of ratification, our common goal and commitment to complete ratification of the charter by all member states will be realized at the time of our leaders' summit in Bangkok" in December, he added.
While foreign ministers attending the 41st Asean Ministers Meeting watched, Nyan Win handed over the document to Asean Secretary General Surin Pitsuwan, to the applause of observers.
Burma was also among the Asean countries which unanimously set up a high-level panel on an Asean human rights body, and endorse its terms of reference.
"We urged Myanmar to take bolder steps towards a peaceful transition to democracy in the near future," and work towards the holding of free and fair general elections in 2010," said the minister's communique at the end of the meeting.
"We reiterated our calls for the release of all political detainees, including Suu Kyi, to pave the way for meaningful dialogue involving all parties concerned."
In a separate statement, Singapore Minister for Foreign Af`fairs George Yeo said Ngan Win had clarified that Suu Kyi would not be released in the next six months, but six months from May 2009, the expiry date of the existing one-year detention order.
Yeo, who is also Asean chairman, and other foreign ministers "misunderstood the point made by the Burmese foreign minister on the limit of the detention period," a statement said.
The "clarification" was made at the ministers' meeting Monday afternoon.
Suu Kyi has spent 13 years in detention since 1989. Her house arrest was recently extended.
Surin said he was sure the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia would soon ratify the charter and that he expected the ratification process to be completed by December.
"The charter will help us building an Asean community we can all be proud of," he said.
The document, which will turn the 41-year-old regional grouping into a legal entity, was initially opposed by the ruling junta because of its inclusion of human rights.
Several Philippine senators said they would oppose the ratification of the charter until the military junta that has ruled Burma since 1962 institutes democratic reforms.
In opening the meeting, Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said Asean had decided to press on with the charter's implementation without waiting for all 10 members to ratify it.
"The internal processes of member countries are different and some will be more difficult than others, Lee said.
The Burmese ratification occurred a day after Asean ministers expressed their "deep disappointment" over the continued detention of Suu Kyi and undetermined numbers of political prisoners.
Asean comprises Brunei, Burma, Cambodia, Laos, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
Source: Bangkok Post
Intelligence: Mid-July Review
BDD
Through the use of compartment strategies comprised of different political and socio-economic core groups, the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) attempts to achieve a comprehensive goal: solidifying its rule and power in Burma.
By establishing the SPDC’s cronies, including pro-SPDC civil society groups, as the “legal” political parties for the sham 2010 Election in Burma, the SPDC will rig the Election results and ensure that only cronies “win” seats in the 2010 Election. Because 25% of the representatives must be uniform military congressmen, the SPDC will register pro-SPDC groups as political parties so that they can control the remaining 75% of the seats. Thus, the SPDC will fix the process as well as the results and prevent anti-SPDC and pro-democracy groups from winning any seats. Therefore, the SPDC will solidify its rule.
The SPDC is engineering the sham “election process” by encouraging cronies to become political parties so that they can “build the country post-election.” Additionally, the SPDC is pushing ceasefire groups to enter these “party politics” in order to prevent potential threats. However, ceasefire groups must obey all orders from the Commander in Chief, and the new sham constitution allows only one army in Burma. Therefore, to maintain existence after the 2010 Election, ceasefire groups may only exist as political parties, as they will likely become localized under the Burma army.
Cyclone Nargis has revealed the SPDC’s two conflicting ideologies. One SPDC faction believed that prohibiting international assistance would increase internal dissatisfaction; whereas, using UN-ASEAN humanitarian aid would foster political legitimacy prior to the 2010 Election. However, the other SPDC faction believed in nationalism and national pride and in prohibiting international humanitarian assistance programs.
This hardliner faction promoted “self-sufficient” programs by internal donors. They used TV and SPDC-controlled media and journals to showcase their “domestic” and “self-reliant” programs in order to falsely claim that they could handle Cyclone Nargis relief efforts domestically and without international assistance.
Slowly, the SPDC has gained international support for its Nargis recovery efforts. Looking ahead to the 2010 Election, the compartment strategy group led by U Aung Thaung, Major General Khin Ye, Major General Kyaw San, received praise and gained support from Senior General than Shwe.
However, evidence demonstrates the SPDC’s internal conflicts and factions. For example, last month, the former Lieutenant General Ye Myint’s anger and frustration sparked a crisis within the SPDC. The exposure of his family’s involvement with the illicit drug trade in Burma has the potential to foster a future power struggle or palace coup. Now, sources said SPDC has considered post Than Shwe’s political consequences.
As history has shown, the family of the late dictator Ne Win was sentenced to death when the late General Ne Win’s grandson insulted General Maung Aye’s daughter. Twenty years ago, a local teashop dispute changed Burma’s entire political landscape by sparking the 1988 nationwide uprising. Only time will tell what will result from the internal power struggles that the SPDC faces today.
Through the use of compartment strategies comprised of different political and socio-economic core groups, the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) attempts to achieve a comprehensive goal: solidifying its rule and power in Burma.
By establishing the SPDC’s cronies, including pro-SPDC civil society groups, as the “legal” political parties for the sham 2010 Election in Burma, the SPDC will rig the Election results and ensure that only cronies “win” seats in the 2010 Election. Because 25% of the representatives must be uniform military congressmen, the SPDC will register pro-SPDC groups as political parties so that they can control the remaining 75% of the seats. Thus, the SPDC will fix the process as well as the results and prevent anti-SPDC and pro-democracy groups from winning any seats. Therefore, the SPDC will solidify its rule.
The SPDC is engineering the sham “election process” by encouraging cronies to become political parties so that they can “build the country post-election.” Additionally, the SPDC is pushing ceasefire groups to enter these “party politics” in order to prevent potential threats. However, ceasefire groups must obey all orders from the Commander in Chief, and the new sham constitution allows only one army in Burma. Therefore, to maintain existence after the 2010 Election, ceasefire groups may only exist as political parties, as they will likely become localized under the Burma army.
Cyclone Nargis has revealed the SPDC’s two conflicting ideologies. One SPDC faction believed that prohibiting international assistance would increase internal dissatisfaction; whereas, using UN-ASEAN humanitarian aid would foster political legitimacy prior to the 2010 Election. However, the other SPDC faction believed in nationalism and national pride and in prohibiting international humanitarian assistance programs.
This hardliner faction promoted “self-sufficient” programs by internal donors. They used TV and SPDC-controlled media and journals to showcase their “domestic” and “self-reliant” programs in order to falsely claim that they could handle Cyclone Nargis relief efforts domestically and without international assistance.
Slowly, the SPDC has gained international support for its Nargis recovery efforts. Looking ahead to the 2010 Election, the compartment strategy group led by U Aung Thaung, Major General Khin Ye, Major General Kyaw San, received praise and gained support from Senior General than Shwe.
However, evidence demonstrates the SPDC’s internal conflicts and factions. For example, last month, the former Lieutenant General Ye Myint’s anger and frustration sparked a crisis within the SPDC. The exposure of his family’s involvement with the illicit drug trade in Burma has the potential to foster a future power struggle or palace coup. Now, sources said SPDC has considered post Than Shwe’s political consequences.
As history has shown, the family of the late dictator Ne Win was sentenced to death when the late General Ne Win’s grandson insulted General Maung Aye’s daughter. Twenty years ago, a local teashop dispute changed Burma’s entire political landscape by sparking the 1988 nationwide uprising. Only time will tell what will result from the internal power struggles that the SPDC faces today.
Monday, July 21, 2008
Food for thought: Regime's new game is on the way
BDD
Internal political landscape is seemed to be tighter control because of uprising season is on the way. Political activists and activists should prepare to push whatever we have to gain an inch.
If we consider we are still in the struggle,we need a unity and how to work among us and which part we could do for the best for the country. Indeed, we have to be careful about regime’s push and pull strategy and just telling when they do allow DASSK to be free again.
Some politicians feel that this is opportunity, but some thought that this is a trap and regime needs a room to play.
Optimism is good but things are so difficult to predict, they promised ASEAN for getting Nargis funds. Who will get the most benefits from funds? Usual suspect; the generals and cronies-for their companies and construction industry. Do they think that DASSK is worth more than they would expect from international donors without freeing her?
Freeing DASSK is not a reward for the movement; she was never supposed to get ambush by USDA, and never supposed to get house arrest. Freeing her is not a solution of Burma or reward, what NLD and SPDC would negotiate for future Burma and democratization process. But not freeing her is a problem for the country.
Internal political landscape is seemed to be tighter control because of uprising season is on the way. Political activists and activists should prepare to push whatever we have to gain an inch.
If we consider we are still in the struggle,we need a unity and how to work among us and which part we could do for the best for the country. Indeed, we have to be careful about regime’s push and pull strategy and just telling when they do allow DASSK to be free again.
Some politicians feel that this is opportunity, but some thought that this is a trap and regime needs a room to play.
Optimism is good but things are so difficult to predict, they promised ASEAN for getting Nargis funds. Who will get the most benefits from funds? Usual suspect; the generals and cronies-for their companies and construction industry. Do they think that DASSK is worth more than they would expect from international donors without freeing her?
Freeing DASSK is not a reward for the movement; she was never supposed to get ambush by USDA, and never supposed to get house arrest. Freeing her is not a solution of Burma or reward, what NLD and SPDC would negotiate for future Burma and democratization process. But not freeing her is a problem for the country.
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19th July at NLD
General Aung San and Ethnic leaders in Pan Long accord, Shan State on 12th Feb 1947
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Our heroes never die from history
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NLD members are scared?
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USDA and government sponsored terrorists at the other side of the NLD headquarters
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Bravery is not only attacking others but you have to resist
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NLD youths are ready to defend the democracy and human rights from evil
Friday, July 18, 2008
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Intelligence: Three personal secretariat officials of BSO are being charged
BDD
Former chiefs of the Bureau of Special Operations [BSO] Lt. Generals Ye Myint’s, Maung Bo’s and Kyaw Win’s PSOs are being charged by the SPDC military criminal court and later transferred to special investigation for civil criminal court sources said.
Frist, there was no political motive before Lt. General Ye Myint’s son was arrested for illicit drug charges.
However, sources said that Lt. General Ye Myint was very angry because his son was targeted. Later tension mounted between he and vice senior general Maung Aye. But there were no physical dispute reported.
General Than Shwe ordered to investigate after he was told that his grandson, Pho La Paye (Maung Full Moon) addicted to illicit drug that ever realized the major reshuffle within Burmese army last month.
Former chiefs of the Bureau of Special Operations [BSO] Lt. Generals Ye Myint’s, Maung Bo’s and Kyaw Win’s PSOs are being charged by the SPDC military criminal court and later transferred to special investigation for civil criminal court sources said.
Frist, there was no political motive before Lt. General Ye Myint’s son was arrested for illicit drug charges.
However, sources said that Lt. General Ye Myint was very angry because his son was targeted. Later tension mounted between he and vice senior general Maung Aye. But there were no physical dispute reported.
General Than Shwe ordered to investigate after he was told that his grandson, Pho La Paye (Maung Full Moon) addicted to illicit drug that ever realized the major reshuffle within Burmese army last month.
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Economic Review: Businessmen on pilgrimages for relationships with new BSO chiefs
BDD
“If you want to be triumphant Burmese businessman, you must be well connected to one of the chiefs of the Bureau of Special Operations [BSO]. If you do not have direct access to the First Lady, then the Zoning Warlord and the BSO Chief are the most important contacts for any business,” a Rangoon businessman whispered.
Smaller and more conservative businesses struggle, as business owners contend with corruption and being forced to pay authorities at the local, district, and state levels. Business owners are unable to make a profit through conventional methods such as buying and selling inventory, which are too time-consuming under these circumstances. Additionally, the extremely high inflation prevents businesses from making a profit. Regardless of the investment or business idea, the only way to generate a profit from business in Burma is to be well connected to senior BSO officials.
A recent shakeup by the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) replaced the BSO Chiefs, and as a result many middle-sized businessmen suffered. Before the reshuffle, select leading businesses were well connected to BSO Chiefs due to the annual fees these businesses paid as well as their providing one time gift of shares in the company. In fact, before the shakeup, one of Burma’s well-known business tycoons paid half a million US dollars to improve his influence and for greater business opportunities. However, now this influence with the previous BSO chiefs means nothing.
In the past, BSO officials were known as an entrance to a gold mine. As an employee responsible for business finances explained, “whether expanding a business or getting export and import opportunities, businesses had to give 15% to 20% loyalty fees to BSO. How do can someone expect to make this? These costs must be paid by consumers.”
As a result of these fees, Burma has some of the most expensive motor vehicles and cellular phones in the world. For example, in Burma a Toyota Land Cruiser is sold for $600,000 USD, and one cell phone costs $3,000 USD. According to a Burmese scholar, “more than 95% of the population has never even touched a cell phone.”
Recently, an economist stated that “when the Regime introduced its open market economy in 1988, many efficient and business savvy people wanted to start various private enterprises. However, more than 90% of the people failed and didn’t make it.” Some of these people were imprisoned while others escaped.
Nevertheless, new faces made their fortune using different strategies; they became well connected with the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) ministers in the early 1990s. However, when many former SLORC ministers were locked under house arrest in 1997, many businessmen left the business community, and only a few survived.
The entire medium-sized business community tries to deal with top officials. “However, there are few gatekeepers at the gate, and these people have monopolized all major money making industries. Additionally, all respective ministers have been doing well since 1988. No wonder these generals are so loyal to the Senior General. I should have joined the army” a Doctor turned businessman declared.
Now, in order to maintain successful businesses in Burma, business owners must once again develop the right connections with authorities. These strategic relationships must be developed with the officials who are in the position to provide business opportunities and who are looking to share the profits. In addition to these officials, business owners must also develop relationships with the people, from school teachers to astrologers, who are acting as middlemen for the new business opportunities and lucrative connections.
Currently, existing business owners are working to create and secure new business opportunities through forming relationships with the new BSO chiefs, the new ministers, and the new regional commanders. “We have to wait a few months for the dust to settle because newcomers may not dare to do it right away. After three months, there will be more opportunities, as October’s Full Moon Day brings the Burmese’ ritual Lighting Festival, when people pay respect to elders or authorities, and this might create opportunities for us because they want to a same fortune as the past officials.” A businessman stressed.
“If you want to be triumphant Burmese businessman, you must be well connected to one of the chiefs of the Bureau of Special Operations [BSO]. If you do not have direct access to the First Lady, then the Zoning Warlord and the BSO Chief are the most important contacts for any business,” a Rangoon businessman whispered.
Smaller and more conservative businesses struggle, as business owners contend with corruption and being forced to pay authorities at the local, district, and state levels. Business owners are unable to make a profit through conventional methods such as buying and selling inventory, which are too time-consuming under these circumstances. Additionally, the extremely high inflation prevents businesses from making a profit. Regardless of the investment or business idea, the only way to generate a profit from business in Burma is to be well connected to senior BSO officials.
A recent shakeup by the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) replaced the BSO Chiefs, and as a result many middle-sized businessmen suffered. Before the reshuffle, select leading businesses were well connected to BSO Chiefs due to the annual fees these businesses paid as well as their providing one time gift of shares in the company. In fact, before the shakeup, one of Burma’s well-known business tycoons paid half a million US dollars to improve his influence and for greater business opportunities. However, now this influence with the previous BSO chiefs means nothing.
In the past, BSO officials were known as an entrance to a gold mine. As an employee responsible for business finances explained, “whether expanding a business or getting export and import opportunities, businesses had to give 15% to 20% loyalty fees to BSO. How do can someone expect to make this? These costs must be paid by consumers.”
As a result of these fees, Burma has some of the most expensive motor vehicles and cellular phones in the world. For example, in Burma a Toyota Land Cruiser is sold for $600,000 USD, and one cell phone costs $3,000 USD. According to a Burmese scholar, “more than 95% of the population has never even touched a cell phone.”
Recently, an economist stated that “when the Regime introduced its open market economy in 1988, many efficient and business savvy people wanted to start various private enterprises. However, more than 90% of the people failed and didn’t make it.” Some of these people were imprisoned while others escaped.
Nevertheless, new faces made their fortune using different strategies; they became well connected with the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) ministers in the early 1990s. However, when many former SLORC ministers were locked under house arrest in 1997, many businessmen left the business community, and only a few survived.
The entire medium-sized business community tries to deal with top officials. “However, there are few gatekeepers at the gate, and these people have monopolized all major money making industries. Additionally, all respective ministers have been doing well since 1988. No wonder these generals are so loyal to the Senior General. I should have joined the army” a Doctor turned businessman declared.
Now, in order to maintain successful businesses in Burma, business owners must once again develop the right connections with authorities. These strategic relationships must be developed with the officials who are in the position to provide business opportunities and who are looking to share the profits. In addition to these officials, business owners must also develop relationships with the people, from school teachers to astrologers, who are acting as middlemen for the new business opportunities and lucrative connections.
Currently, existing business owners are working to create and secure new business opportunities through forming relationships with the new BSO chiefs, the new ministers, and the new regional commanders. “We have to wait a few months for the dust to settle because newcomers may not dare to do it right away. After three months, there will be more opportunities, as October’s Full Moon Day brings the Burmese’ ritual Lighting Festival, when people pay respect to elders or authorities, and this might create opportunities for us because they want to a same fortune as the past officials.” A businessman stressed.
Burma Update: The World Bank decided to cooperation with SPDC without financial aid
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
BDD
After one week of meetings and visited Irrawaddy delta region, the World Bank experts concluded that they are unable to assist any financial needs but to support the ASEAN-UN let humanitarian assistance and rebuilding the livelihoods. The WB mission also reviewed what Burmese officials estimate caused $11 billion in damage to the needy in Irrawaddy delta, five member of WB team decided to provide technical assistance and other suggestions for SPDC.
Sources said reflection of Burma current political situations and regime showed it’s reluctant of international humanitarian assistance in poor country; WB mission needs further negotiation with regime and opposition party NLD. Without political stability, the WB is unable to provide any funds for isolated country.
Regardless of strong suggestions from ASEAN, the World Bank has clear mission; a country with political crisis, but able to conduct the free assessment, design and support the country development. However, country’s current situation is not met to the international recipient standard, sources said.
During the first time in post Nargis emergency meeting in Singapore, ASEAN ministers believed that Burma might corporate with international agencies and ASEAN was able to lead international relief and reconstruction efforts.
ASEAN officials and international aid agencies created a framework that could open the way for foreign relief to enter the country from different donors, mainly from West. In terms of having a major devastated, ASEAN-UN and SPDC estimated that 75 percent of schools, 60 percent of economy were destroyed or damaged in areas.
ASEAN ministers expected the International Financial Institutions is only a source to reconstruct the country needs. ASEAN and UN officials wanted to see a major role of the World Bank and the ADB, Asian Development Bank.
ASEAN Secretary General Surin Pitsuwan flew to Washington D.C. to meet with World Bank President Robert Zoellick in June but he didn’t get assurance from the World Bank, sources said. The World Bank expectation is to avoid SPDC restrictions, unstable policies and different regulations from different ministries.
During the visit, the WB mission meeting with NLD officials and they did get the real picture of SPDC and unable to provide any financial assistance. NLD offered discussed the issue of regime intolerance against the relief effort. The WB mission worried that current arrest of individuals donors and leading Nargis relief coordinator Zarganar.
The WB mission might have seen the SPDC’s too much politicized the relief issues; allowing only cronies and its civil groups are able to do for their long term political and economic benefits.
Other NGOs reportedly met WB mission but they were unable to convince the WB to review to provide a financial assistance. Yet, the WB has not received any request for financial support from regime, sources said.
One of the regime’s close associates that able to get access to the international community and aid agencies has got frustrated. But this group didn’t give up and try through ASEAN, and planned to meet with ASEAN top secretariat in Bangkok this week, sources said.
BDD
After one week of meetings and visited Irrawaddy delta region, the World Bank experts concluded that they are unable to assist any financial needs but to support the ASEAN-UN let humanitarian assistance and rebuilding the livelihoods. The WB mission also reviewed what Burmese officials estimate caused $11 billion in damage to the needy in Irrawaddy delta, five member of WB team decided to provide technical assistance and other suggestions for SPDC.
Sources said reflection of Burma current political situations and regime showed it’s reluctant of international humanitarian assistance in poor country; WB mission needs further negotiation with regime and opposition party NLD. Without political stability, the WB is unable to provide any funds for isolated country.
Regardless of strong suggestions from ASEAN, the World Bank has clear mission; a country with political crisis, but able to conduct the free assessment, design and support the country development. However, country’s current situation is not met to the international recipient standard, sources said.
During the first time in post Nargis emergency meeting in Singapore, ASEAN ministers believed that Burma might corporate with international agencies and ASEAN was able to lead international relief and reconstruction efforts.
ASEAN officials and international aid agencies created a framework that could open the way for foreign relief to enter the country from different donors, mainly from West. In terms of having a major devastated, ASEAN-UN and SPDC estimated that 75 percent of schools, 60 percent of economy were destroyed or damaged in areas.
ASEAN ministers expected the International Financial Institutions is only a source to reconstruct the country needs. ASEAN and UN officials wanted to see a major role of the World Bank and the ADB, Asian Development Bank.
ASEAN Secretary General Surin Pitsuwan flew to Washington D.C. to meet with World Bank President Robert Zoellick in June but he didn’t get assurance from the World Bank, sources said. The World Bank expectation is to avoid SPDC restrictions, unstable policies and different regulations from different ministries.
During the visit, the WB mission meeting with NLD officials and they did get the real picture of SPDC and unable to provide any financial assistance. NLD offered discussed the issue of regime intolerance against the relief effort. The WB mission worried that current arrest of individuals donors and leading Nargis relief coordinator Zarganar.
The WB mission might have seen the SPDC’s too much politicized the relief issues; allowing only cronies and its civil groups are able to do for their long term political and economic benefits.
Other NGOs reportedly met WB mission but they were unable to convince the WB to review to provide a financial assistance. Yet, the WB has not received any request for financial support from regime, sources said.
One of the regime’s close associates that able to get access to the international community and aid agencies has got frustrated. But this group didn’t give up and try through ASEAN, and planned to meet with ASEAN top secretariat in Bangkok this week, sources said.
Post Nargis development: Generals’ cronies were encouraged in a wrong place to invest?
BDD
Sunday, June 29, 2008
Sources close to SPDC and Business tycoons stressed that many businessmen have faced uncertainty of high profits and long term projects from Nargis cyclone. Sources continued that SPDC top generals suggested their cronies to plan their projects in cyclone Nargis's most affected areas for constructions, rebuilding villages and other logistic needs.
Nepotism is common in Burma business circle but time is slowly running out without cash flowing from donors and SPDC.
After referendum, senior general Than Shwe visited and inspected showcase refugee camps in cyclone affected area with a handful of businessmen. He reportedly instructed his businessmen to start preparing to re-build the roads, villages, towns, schools and other logistic needs to speed up the reconstruction phase.
However, one month after donors meeting in Rangoon, SPDC’s game plan might have to change it, in terms of donors carefully reviewing the regime’s proposals and that would not prove any accountability and worries of their tax payers money might not go to the needy. Indeed, donors didn’t promise to provide a blank-check to the regime. “There will be more check and balance mechanism if any major projects would be placed” ASEAN diplomat stressed.
Furthermore, UN itself even faces fund shortage to deliver emergency relief with airlift. UN’s promising two hundred million USD project has only fifty million in hands and would take few time to raise the rest. Donors wanted more efficiency and accountability issues are top of that.
Major dilemma is now within SPDC. SPDC’s proposal of eleven billions to realize the reconstruction and rebuilding for two and half millions peoples’ way of lives and their future, prevention of next round of major cyclone, raising one hundred feet high roads to prevent fifteen meters high sea waves if another storm would come.
Sources said few high fly companies are now facing funding needs to run these uncertain projects from SPDC and foreign donors. These companies have opened their relief centers and front-line offices in many cities and towns in Irrawaddy delta. They are ready to start doing their construction business.
Both SPDC generals and cronies expected high cash flows after post cyclone, the generals issued the special regulations for donations, lifting restrictions and regulations for this purpose. “But now things are different,” one of the high fly companies’ employees said, “their boss demanded not to spend cash and wait for day by day instructions”.
One of the SPDC close associates said “companies may never lose, senior general would let them recover their lost from different money making fields; oil drilling, gold mines, timber and fishing rights, don’t worry about it.”
Sunday, June 29, 2008
Sources close to SPDC and Business tycoons stressed that many businessmen have faced uncertainty of high profits and long term projects from Nargis cyclone. Sources continued that SPDC top generals suggested their cronies to plan their projects in cyclone Nargis's most affected areas for constructions, rebuilding villages and other logistic needs.
Nepotism is common in Burma business circle but time is slowly running out without cash flowing from donors and SPDC.
After referendum, senior general Than Shwe visited and inspected showcase refugee camps in cyclone affected area with a handful of businessmen. He reportedly instructed his businessmen to start preparing to re-build the roads, villages, towns, schools and other logistic needs to speed up the reconstruction phase.
However, one month after donors meeting in Rangoon, SPDC’s game plan might have to change it, in terms of donors carefully reviewing the regime’s proposals and that would not prove any accountability and worries of their tax payers money might not go to the needy. Indeed, donors didn’t promise to provide a blank-check to the regime. “There will be more check and balance mechanism if any major projects would be placed” ASEAN diplomat stressed.
Furthermore, UN itself even faces fund shortage to deliver emergency relief with airlift. UN’s promising two hundred million USD project has only fifty million in hands and would take few time to raise the rest. Donors wanted more efficiency and accountability issues are top of that.
Major dilemma is now within SPDC. SPDC’s proposal of eleven billions to realize the reconstruction and rebuilding for two and half millions peoples’ way of lives and their future, prevention of next round of major cyclone, raising one hundred feet high roads to prevent fifteen meters high sea waves if another storm would come.
Sources said few high fly companies are now facing funding needs to run these uncertain projects from SPDC and foreign donors. These companies have opened their relief centers and front-line offices in many cities and towns in Irrawaddy delta. They are ready to start doing their construction business.
Both SPDC generals and cronies expected high cash flows after post cyclone, the generals issued the special regulations for donations, lifting restrictions and regulations for this purpose. “But now things are different,” one of the high fly companies’ employees said, “their boss demanded not to spend cash and wait for day by day instructions”.
One of the SPDC close associates said “companies may never lose, senior general would let them recover their lost from different money making fields; oil drilling, gold mines, timber and fishing rights, don’t worry about it.”
Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) Provides Support
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Washington, DC, June 23, 2008 - The Global Facility for Disaster Reduction
and Recovery (GFDRR) has agreed to provide grant finance to support the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to strengthen its capacity to
rapidly respond to disasters throughout the region - the initial focus will
be on helping to assess the impact and damage caused by Cylone Nargis in
Myanmar.
A grant of $850,000 has been made to support the ASEAN Secretariat in
responding to Cyclone Nargis, which has left 77,738, people dead and 55,917
people still missing. ASEAN is currently leading teams of international
experts in conducting the Post-Nargis Joint Assessment, in partnership with
the United Nations and supported by Bank technical staff. The grant will be
used for training in damage and loss assessment techniques, technical
assistance in disaster recovery, and exchange on regional experiences
amongst ASEAN members, such as post-Tsunami community-based recovery
approaches.
The GFDRR is a partnership of Australia, Canada, Denmark, European
Commission, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Norway,
USAID/OFDA, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, UNISDR and the World Bank.
It aims to help countries undertake disaster risk and climate change impact
assessments, to formulate and implement risk mitigation strategies and
reduce the impact of natural disasters or recover from the effects. The
support to ASEAN is part of a first tranche of contributions received from
Australia and Sweden.
Source: IFI-Burma
Washington, DC, June 23, 2008 - The Global Facility for Disaster Reduction
and Recovery (GFDRR) has agreed to provide grant finance to support the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to strengthen its capacity to
rapidly respond to disasters throughout the region - the initial focus will
be on helping to assess the impact and damage caused by Cylone Nargis in
Myanmar.
A grant of $850,000 has been made to support the ASEAN Secretariat in
responding to Cyclone Nargis, which has left 77,738, people dead and 55,917
people still missing. ASEAN is currently leading teams of international
experts in conducting the Post-Nargis Joint Assessment, in partnership with
the United Nations and supported by Bank technical staff. The grant will be
used for training in damage and loss assessment techniques, technical
assistance in disaster recovery, and exchange on regional experiences
amongst ASEAN members, such as post-Tsunami community-based recovery
approaches.
The GFDRR is a partnership of Australia, Canada, Denmark, European
Commission, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Norway,
USAID/OFDA, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, UNISDR and the World Bank.
It aims to help countries undertake disaster risk and climate change impact
assessments, to formulate and implement risk mitigation strategies and
reduce the impact of natural disasters or recover from the effects. The
support to ASEAN is part of a first tranche of contributions received from
Australia and Sweden.
Source: IFI-Burma
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